Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 75.39%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Swindon Town had a probability of 9.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (9.81%) and 1-2 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.16%), while for a Swindon Town win it was 2-1 (2.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
