Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong FC Utrecht win with a probability of 39.32%. A win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 36.26% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong FC Utrecht win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.8%) and 0-2 (5.93%). The likeliest MVV Maastricht win was 2-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong FC Utrecht would win this match.
