Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 44.95%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 30.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.45%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (7.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
