Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 48.88%. A win for Adelaide United had a probability of 28.08% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.97%) and 0-2 (7.18%). The likeliest Adelaide United win was 2-1 (6.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
