SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cape Verde | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ghana | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Mozambique | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ghana win with a probability of 45.91%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for Madagascar had a probability of 25.99%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ghana win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.29%) and 1-2 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.92%), while for a Madagascar win it was 1-0 (9.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ghana would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Madagascar | Draw | Ghana |
25.99% ( -1.22) | 28.09% ( -0.52) | 45.91% ( 1.74) |
| Both teams to score 43.99% ( 0.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.7% ( 1.08) | 61.29% ( -1.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.78% ( 0.8) | 81.21% ( -0.8) |
| Madagascar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.05% ( -0.45) | 39.95% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 23.39% ( -0.42) | 76.61% ( 0.41) |
| Ghana Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.26% ( 1.42) | 26.74% ( -1.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.99% ( 1.84) | 62.01% ( -1.84) |
| Score Analysis |
| Madagascar | Draw | Ghana |
| 1-0 @ 9.8% ( -0.53) 2-1 @ 5.93% ( -0.15)2-0 @ 4.5% ( -0.3)3-1 @ 1.81% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 1.38% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 1.2% ( 0)Other @ 1.38% Total : 25.99% | 1-1 @ 12.92% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 10.68% ( -0.44)2-2 @ 3.91% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.57% Total : 28.08% | 0-1 @ 14.09% 0-2 @ 9.29% ( 0.36)1-2 @ 8.53% ( 0.23)0-3 @ 4.09% ( 0.31)1-3 @ 3.75% ( 0.25)2-3 @ 1.72% ( 0.09)0-4 @ 1.35% ( 0.15)1-4 @ 1.24% ( 0.13)Other @ 1.86% Total : 45.91% |
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