SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | South Africa | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 3 | Namibia | 3 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Tunisia | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cape Verde | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Egypt | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Ghana | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Mozambique | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 54.91%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Ghana had a probability of 20.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.54%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Ghana win it was 0-1 (7.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Mali | Draw | Ghana |
54.91% ( 1.22) | 24.45% ( -0.36) | 20.63% ( -0.86) |
| Both teams to score 48.28% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.21% ( 0.45) | 52.78% ( -0.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.58% ( 0.38) | 74.41% ( -0.39) |
| Mali Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.86% ( 0.65) | 19.13% ( -0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.22% ( 1.07) | 50.78% ( -1.07) |
| Ghana Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.7% ( -0.64) | 40.29% ( 0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.08% ( -0.58) | 76.92% ( 0.58) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mali | Draw | Ghana |
| 1-0 @ 12.75% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 10.54% ( 0.24)2-1 @ 9.58% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 5.81% ( 0.25)3-1 @ 5.28% ( 0.14)4-0 @ 2.4% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 2.4% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.18% ( 0.1)4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.97% Total : 54.91% | 1-1 @ 11.58% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 7.71% ( -0.14)2-2 @ 4.36% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.8% Total : 24.44% | 0-1 @ 7.01% ( -0.25) 1-2 @ 5.27% ( -0.17)0-2 @ 3.19% ( -0.17)1-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.29% Total : 20.63% |
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