SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bala Town win with a probability of 43.42%. A win for Pen-y-Bont had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bala Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.59%) and 2-0 (6.81%). The likeliest Pen-y-Bont win was 1-2 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bala Town | Draw | Pen-y-Bont |
43.42% ( 0.33) | 24.48% ( 0.03) | 32.1% ( -0.36) |
| Both teams to score 58.49% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.77% ( -0.26) | 44.23% ( 0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.39% ( -0.25) | 66.61% ( 0.25) |
| Bala Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.51% ( 0.04) | 20.49% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.03% ( 0.06) | 52.97% ( -0.06) |
| Pen-y-Bont Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.56% ( -0.34) | 26.44% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.39% ( -0.46) | 61.61% ( 0.46) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bala Town | Draw | Pen-y-Bont |
| 2-1 @ 9.06% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.59% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 6.81% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.6% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.9% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0)Other @ 2.83% Total : 43.42% | 1-1 @ 11.42% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.02% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 5.42% ( 0.06)3-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.48% | 1-2 @ 7.6% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 7.21% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.79% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.37% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.12% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.21% Total : 32.1% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 56 | 12 | 44 | 44 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 38 |
| 3 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 32 | 20 | 12 | 33 |
| 4 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 29 |
| 5 | Bala TownBala Town | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 28 |
| 6 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 27 |
| 7 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 22 |
| 8 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 21 |
| 9 | Barry Town UnitedBarry | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 37 | -18 | 16 |
| 10 | Colwyn Bay | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 14 |
| 11 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 25 | -18 | 13 |
| 12 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 18 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 39 | -25 | 11 |
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