SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 61.84%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Bala Town had a probability of 15.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.44%) and 1-2 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.62%), while for a Bala Town win it was 1-0 (5.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bala Town | Draw | The New Saints |
15.52% ( -0.02) | 22.63% ( 0.01) | 61.84% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 44.58% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.1% ( -0.09) | 52.9% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.49% ( -0.08) | 74.51% ( 0.08) |
| Bala Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.49% ( -0.09) | 46.5% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.89% ( -0.07) | 82.11% ( 0.06) |
| The New Saints Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.34% ( -0.03) | 16.65% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 53.49% ( -0.05) | 46.51% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bala Town | Draw | The New Saints |
| 1-0 @ 5.93% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 4.07% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 2.27% ( -0)3-1 @ 1.04% ( -0)3-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.28% Total : 15.52% | 1-1 @ 10.62% 0-0 @ 7.75% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.61% Total : 22.62% | 0-1 @ 13.88% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 12.44% ( 0.02)1-2 @ 9.53% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 7.43% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 5.69% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 3.33% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.55% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 1.19% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.98% ( -0)1-5 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 1.72% Total : 61.84% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 45 | 10 | 35 | 35 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 41 | 16 | 25 | 32 |
| 3 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 28 | 26 | 2 | 23 |
| 5 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 22 |
| 6 | Bala TownBala Town | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 20 |
| 7 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 17 |
| 8 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 14 |
| 9 | Barry Town UnitedBarry | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 12 |
| 10 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 12 |
| 11 | Colwyn Bay | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 8 |
| 12 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 28 | -20 | 8 |
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