Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 45.6%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 25.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.38%) and 1-2 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.99%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 1-0 (10.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Penarol in this match.
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