Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 37.13%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 33.81% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.6%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 (11.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
0.06) 
-0.07) 
