Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 50.77%. A draw had a probability of 26.9% and a win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 22.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.47%) and 1-2 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.41%), while for a Defensor Sporting win it was 1-0 (8.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
-0.29) 
0.29) 
