SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 43.65%. A win for Sudtirol had a probability of 29.8% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.86%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Sudtirol win was 0-1 (8.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| SPAL | Draw | Sudtirol |
43.65% ( -0.16) | 26.54% ( 0.11) | 29.8% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 50.67% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.08% ( -0.39) | 53.92% ( 0.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.63% ( -0.33) | 75.38% ( 0.33) |
| SPAL Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.47% ( -0.25) | 24.53% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41% ( -0.36) | 59% ( 0.36) |
| Sudtirol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.13% ( -0.16) | 32.87% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.56% ( -0.18) | 69.44% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| SPAL | Draw | Sudtirol |
| 1-0 @ 11.33% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 8.86% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 7.96% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.15% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 3.73% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.31% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.46% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.31% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.55% Total : 43.65% | 1-1 @ 12.6% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 8.06% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 4.93% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.95% Total : 26.54% | 0-1 @ 8.97% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 7.01% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.99% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.6% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.85% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.55% Total : 29.8% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FrosinoneFrosinone | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 48 | 19 | 29 | 62 |
| 2 | Genoa | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 39 | 19 | 20 | 56 |
| 3 | SudtirolSudtirol | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 51 |
| 4 | BariBari | 29 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 45 | 27 | 18 | 50 |
| 5 | Pisa | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 45 |
| 6 | CagliariCagliari | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 45 |
| 7 | RegginaReggina | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 39 | 35 | 4 | 42 |
| 8 | Palermo | 30 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 |
| 9 | Parma | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 33 | 2 | 41 |
| 10 | Como | 30 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 39 |
| 11 | Modena | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 41 | 43 | -2 | 38 |
| 12 | AscoliAscoli | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 36 |
| 13 | Ternana | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 36 |
| 14 | Cittadella | 30 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 35 |
| 15 | Perugia | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 33 |
| 16 | VeneziaVenezia | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 33 |
| 17 | Cosenza CalcioCosenza | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 47 | -22 | 32 |
| 18 | BeneventoBenevento | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 29 |
| 19 | SPALSPAL | 30 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 28 |
| 20 | Brescia | 30 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 28 |
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