SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Parma win with a probability of 42.21%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 31.54% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Parma win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest SPAL win was 1-0 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Parma in this match.
| Result | ||
| SPAL | Draw | Parma |
31.54% ( -3.97) | 26.25% ( 0.15) | 42.21% ( 3.82) |
| Both teams to score 52.35% ( -1.47) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.89% ( -1.44) | 52.11% ( 1.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.17% ( -1.26) | 73.83% ( 1.25) |
| SPAL Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.3% ( -3.25) | 30.7% ( 3.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.04% ( -4.01) | 66.96% ( 4.01) |
| Parma Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.55% ( 1.36) | 24.45% ( -1.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.11% ( 1.88) | 58.88% ( -1.88) |
| Score Analysis |
| SPAL | Draw | Parma |
| 1-0 @ 8.86% ( -0.3) 2-1 @ 7.37% ( -0.65)2-0 @ 5.23% ( -0.69)3-1 @ 2.9% ( -0.55)3-0 @ 2.06% ( -0.49)3-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.3)Other @ 3.07% Total : 31.54% | 1-1 @ 12.48% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 7.51% ( 0.42)2-2 @ 5.19% ( -0.24)3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.25% | 0-1 @ 10.57% ( 0.97) 1-2 @ 8.79% ( 0.39)0-2 @ 7.45% ( 0.95)1-3 @ 4.13% ( 0.34)0-3 @ 3.5% ( 0.56)2-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.45% ( 0.17)0-4 @ 1.23% ( 0.24)Other @ 2.65% Total : 42.21% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| P | FrosinoneFrosinone | 38 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 80 |
| 2 | Genoa | 38 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 53 | 28 | 25 | 73 |
| 3 | BariBari | 38 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 65 |
| 4 | CagliariCagliari | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 60 |
| 5 | Parma | 38 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 60 |
| 6 | SudtirolSudtirol | 38 | 14 | 16 | 8 | 38 | 34 | 4 | 58 |
| 7 | RegginaReggina | 38 | 17 | 4 | 17 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 50 |
| 8 | VeneziaVenezia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 49 |
| 9 | Palermo | 38 | 11 | 16 | 11 | 48 | 49 | -1 | 49 |
| 10 | Modena | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 48 |
| 11 | Pisa | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 48 | 42 | 6 | 47 |
| 12 | Como | 38 | 10 | 17 | 11 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 47 |
| 13 | AscoliAscoli | 38 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 47 |
| 14 | Cittadella | 38 | 9 | 16 | 13 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 43 |
| 15 | Ternana | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 37 | 52 | -15 | 43 |
| 16 | Brescia | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 36 | 57 | -21 | 40 |
| 17 | Cosenza CalcioCosenza | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 30 | 53 | -23 | 40 |
| 18 | Perugia | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 39 |
| 19 | SPALSPAL | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 38 |
| 20 | BeneventoBenevento | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
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