SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 50.94%. A win for Ternana had a probability of 25.08% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Ternana win was 0-1 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| SPAL | Draw | Ternana |
50.94% ( 0.12) | 23.97% | 25.08% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 55.17% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.66% ( -0.11) | 46.34% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.37% ( -0.1) | 68.63% ( 0.1) |
| SPAL Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.78% ( 0) | 18.22% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.76% ( 0.01) | 49.23% ( -0.01) |
| Ternana Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.45% ( -0.16) | 32.55% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.92% ( -0.18) | 69.08% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| SPAL | Draw | Ternana |
| 1-0 @ 10.09% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.65% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.6% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 5.48% ( 0)3-0 @ 4.88% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.33% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.08% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.31% ( -0)Other @ 3.45% Total : 50.94% | 1-1 @ 11.33% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.93% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 5.42% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.97% | 0-1 @ 6.66% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.36% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 3.74% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.38% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.53% Total : 25.08% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| P | FrosinoneFrosinone | 37 | 23 | 8 | 6 | 60 | 24 | 36 | 77 |
| 2 | Genoa | 37 | 20 | 11 | 6 | 49 | 25 | 24 | 70 |
| 3 | BariBari | 37 | 17 | 14 | 6 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 65 |
| 4 | SudtirolSudtirol | 37 | 14 | 16 | 7 | 37 | 32 | 5 | 58 |
| 5 | CagliariCagliari | 37 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 57 |
| 6 | Parma | 37 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 46 | 38 | 8 | 57 |
| 7 | VeneziaVenezia | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 50 | 48 | 2 | 49 |
| 8 | Palermo | 37 | 11 | 15 | 11 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 48 |
| 9 | Pisa | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 47 | 40 | 7 | 47 |
| 10 | RegginaReggina | 37 | 16 | 4 | 17 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 47 |
| 11 | AscoliAscoli | 37 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 47 |
| 12 | Como | 37 | 10 | 16 | 11 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 46 |
| 13 | Modena | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 45 |
| 14 | Ternana | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 43 |
| 15 | Cittadella | 37 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 42 |
| 16 | Cosenza CalcioCosenza | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 30 | 52 | -22 | 40 |
| 17 | Brescia | 37 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 34 | 55 | -21 | 39 |
| 18 | Perugia | 37 | 9 | 9 | 19 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 36 |
| 19 | SPALSPAL | 37 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 35 |
| 20 | BeneventoBenevento | 37 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 35 |
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