SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 55.05%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Venezia had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.51%) and 2-1 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.54%), while for a Venezia win it was 0-1 (6.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Cagliari | Draw | Venezia |
55.05% ( 0.26) | 24.34% ( -0.21) | 20.6% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 48.58% ( 0.54) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.63% ( 0.74) | 52.37% ( -0.74) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.94% ( 0.64) | 74.06% ( -0.64) |
| Cagliari Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.07% ( 0.39) | 18.92% ( -0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.57% ( 0.64) | 50.43% ( -0.64) |
| Venezia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.92% ( 0.38) | 40.08% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.27% ( 0.34) | 76.72% ( -0.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cagliari | Draw | Venezia |
| 1-0 @ 12.62% ( -0.22) 2-0 @ 10.51% ( -0.05)2-1 @ 9.61% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 5.83% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 5.33% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 2.44% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 2.43% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 2.22% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.05% Total : 55.05% | 1-1 @ 11.54% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 7.59% ( -0.23)2-2 @ 4.39% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.82% Total : 24.34% | 0-1 @ 6.94% ( -0.13) 1-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 1.31% Total : 20.6% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | FrosinoneFrosinone | 38 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 80 |
| P | Genoa | 38 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 53 | 28 | 25 | 73 |
| 3 | BariBari | 38 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 65 |
| 4 | CagliariCagliari | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 60 |
| 5 | Parma | 38 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 60 |
| 6 | SudtirolSudtirol | 38 | 14 | 16 | 8 | 38 | 34 | 4 | 58 |
| 7 | RegginaReggina | 38 | 17 | 4 | 17 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 50 |
| 8 | VeneziaVenezia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 49 |
| 9 | Palermo | 38 | 11 | 16 | 11 | 48 | 49 | -1 | 49 |
| 10 | Modena | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 48 |
| 11 | Pisa | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 48 | 42 | 6 | 47 |
| 12 | Como | 38 | 10 | 17 | 11 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 47 |
| 13 | AscoliAscoli | 38 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 47 |
| 14 | Cittadella | 38 | 9 | 16 | 13 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 43 |
| 15 | Ternana | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 37 | 52 | -15 | 43 |
| R | Brescia | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 36 | 57 | -21 | 40 |
| 17 | Cosenza CalcioCosenza | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 30 | 53 | -23 | 40 |
| R | Perugia | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 39 |
| R | SPALSPAL | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 38 |
| R | BeneventoBenevento | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
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