SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 39.82%. A win for Perugia had a probability of 31.97% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.13%) and 0-2 (7.57%). The likeliest Perugia win was 1-0 (10.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cagliari would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Perugia | Draw | Cagliari |
31.97% ( 0.01) | 28.2% | 39.82% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 46.64% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.57% ( -0) | 59.42% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.2% ( -0) | 79.79% |
| Perugia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.83% ( 0.01) | 34.17% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.14% ( 0.01) | 70.86% ( -0.01) |
| Cagliari Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.86% ( -0.01) | 29.14% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.92% ( -0.01) | 65.07% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Perugia | Draw | Cagliari |
| 1-0 @ 10.69% 2-1 @ 7.08% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.74% ( 0)3-1 @ 2.53% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.06% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.56% Other @ 2.31% Total : 31.97% | 1-1 @ 13.18% 0-0 @ 9.96% 2-2 @ 4.36% Other @ 0.7% Total : 28.2% | 0-1 @ 12.27% 1-2 @ 8.13% ( -0)0-2 @ 7.57% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.34% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.11% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.79% 1-4 @ 1.03% 0-4 @ 0.96% ( -0)Other @ 1.61% Total : 39.81% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | FrosinoneFrosinone | 38 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 80 |
| P | Genoa | 38 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 53 | 28 | 25 | 73 |
| 3 | BariBari | 38 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 65 |
| 4 | CagliariCagliari | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 60 |
| 5 | Parma | 38 | 17 | 10 | 11 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 60 |
| 6 | SudtirolSudtirol | 38 | 14 | 16 | 8 | 38 | 34 | 4 | 58 |
| 7 | RegginaReggina | 38 | 17 | 4 | 17 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 50 |
| 8 | VeneziaVenezia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 49 |
| 9 | Palermo | 38 | 11 | 16 | 11 | 48 | 49 | -1 | 49 |
| 10 | Modena | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 47 | 53 | -6 | 48 |
| 11 | Pisa | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 48 | 42 | 6 | 47 |
| 12 | Como | 38 | 10 | 17 | 11 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 47 |
| 13 | AscoliAscoli | 38 | 12 | 11 | 15 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 47 |
| 14 | Cittadella | 38 | 9 | 16 | 13 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 43 |
| 15 | Ternana | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 37 | 52 | -15 | 43 |
| R | Brescia | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 36 | 57 | -21 | 40 |
| 17 | Cosenza CalcioCosenza | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 30 | 53 | -23 | 40 |
| R | Perugia | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 40 | 52 | -12 | 39 |
| R | SPALSPAL | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 38 |
| R | BeneventoBenevento | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
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