Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 45.17%. A win for Cagliari had a probability of 29.88% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.21%) and 0-2 (7.52%). The likeliest Cagliari win was 1-0 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
-1.19) 
2.06) 
