SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Perugia win with a probability of 45.32%. A win for Modena had a probability of 28.73% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Perugia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.09%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Modena win was 0-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Perugia | Draw | Modena |
45.32% ( -0) | 25.94% ( 0) | 28.73% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 51.89% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.95% ( -0) | 52.05% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.22% ( -0) | 73.78% ( 0) |
| Perugia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.09% ( -0) | 22.91% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.33% ( -0) | 56.67% ( 0) |
| Modena Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.31% ( 0) | 32.69% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.76% ( 0) | 69.24% |
| Score Analysis |
| Perugia | Draw | Modena |
| 1-0 @ 11.03% 2-1 @ 9.09% 2-0 @ 8.13% 3-1 @ 4.47% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.99% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.5% 4-1 @ 1.65% 4-0 @ 1.47% 4-2 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.07% Total : 45.32% | 1-1 @ 12.33% 0-0 @ 7.49% ( 0)2-2 @ 5.08% 3-3 @ 0.93% Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.93% | 0-1 @ 8.37% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.9% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.68% 1-3 @ 2.57% 2-3 @ 1.9% 0-3 @ 1.75% Other @ 2.57% Total : 28.73% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| P | FrosinoneFrosinone | 37 | 23 | 8 | 6 | 60 | 24 | 36 | 77 |
| 2 | Genoa | 37 | 20 | 11 | 6 | 49 | 25 | 24 | 70 |
| 3 | BariBari | 37 | 17 | 14 | 6 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 65 |
| 4 | SudtirolSudtirol | 37 | 14 | 16 | 7 | 37 | 32 | 5 | 58 |
| 5 | CagliariCagliari | 37 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 57 |
| 6 | Parma | 37 | 16 | 10 | 11 | 46 | 38 | 8 | 57 |
| 7 | VeneziaVenezia | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 50 | 48 | 2 | 49 |
| 8 | Palermo | 37 | 11 | 15 | 11 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 48 |
| 9 | Pisa | 37 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 47 | 40 | 7 | 47 |
| 10 | RegginaReggina | 37 | 16 | 4 | 17 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 47 |
| 11 | AscoliAscoli | 37 | 12 | 11 | 14 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 47 |
| 12 | Como | 37 | 10 | 16 | 11 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 46 |
| 13 | Modena | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 45 |
| 14 | Ternana | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 43 |
| 15 | Cittadella | 37 | 9 | 15 | 13 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 42 |
| 16 | Cosenza CalcioCosenza | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 30 | 52 | -22 | 40 |
| 17 | Brescia | 37 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 34 | 55 | -21 | 39 |
| 18 | Perugia | 37 | 9 | 9 | 19 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 36 |
| 19 | SPALSPAL | 37 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 35 |
| 20 | BeneventoBenevento | 37 | 7 | 14 | 16 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 35 |
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