SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 53.81%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Roma had a probability of 20.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.9%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.95%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (7.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Fiorentina in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Fiorentina.
| Result | ||
| Fiorentina | Draw | Roma |
53.81% ( 0.05) | 25.59% ( -0.02) | 20.59% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 45.08% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.99% ( 0.02) | 57% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.1% ( 0.02) | 77.9% ( -0.02) |
| Fiorentina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.76% ( 0.03) | 21.24% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.85% ( 0.04) | 54.15% ( -0.05) |
| Roma Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.24% ( -0.02) | 42.76% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.91% ( -0.02) | 79.09% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fiorentina | Draw | Roma |
| 1-0 @ 14.07% 2-0 @ 10.9% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.26% ( 0)3-0 @ 5.63% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.78% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.18% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.03% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.85% ( 0)Other @ 3.11% Total : 53.81% | 1-1 @ 11.95% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.08% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 3.93% ( -0)Other @ 0.62% Total : 25.59% | 0-1 @ 7.72% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.28% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.44% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.11% ( -0)0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 1.04% Total : 20.59% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Napoli | 38 | 28 | 6 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 90 |
| 2 | Lazio | 38 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 30 | 30 | 74 |
| 3 | Inter Milan | 38 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 71 | 42 | 29 | 72 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 70 |
| 5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 38 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 66 | 48 | 18 | 64 |
| 6 | Roma | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 63 |
| 7 | Juventus | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 56 | 33 | 23 | 62 |
| 8 | Fiorentina | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 53 | 43 | 10 | 56 |
| 9 | Bologna | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 53 | 49 | 4 | 54 |
| 10 | Torino | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 53 |
| 11 | Monza | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 |
| 12 | Udinese | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 46 |
| 13 | SassuoloSassuolo | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 45 |
| 14 | Empoli | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 43 |
| 15 | Salernitana | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 48 | 62 | -14 | 42 |
| 16 | Lecce | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 36 |
| R | SpeziaSpezia | 38 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 31 | 62 | -31 | 31 |
| 18 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 31 | 59 | -28 | 31 |
| R | Cremonese | 38 | 5 | 12 | 21 | 36 | 69 | -33 | 27 |
| R | Sampdoria | 38 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 24 | 71 | -47 | 19 |
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