SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiorentina win with a probability of 47.38%. A win for Basel had a probability of 28.5% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiorentina win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.1%) and 0-2 (7.59%). The likeliest Basel win was 2-1 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%).
| Result | ||
| Basel | Draw | Fiorentina |
28.5% ( 0.85) | 24.12% ( -0.07) | 47.38% ( -0.78) |
| Both teams to score 57.66% ( 0.87) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.58% ( 0.86) | 44.42% ( -0.86) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.21% ( 0.83) | 66.79% ( -0.83) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.08% ( 1.06) | 28.92% ( -1.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.2% ( 1.29) | 64.8% ( -1.29) |
| Fiorentina Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.12% ( 0.02) | 18.88% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.64% ( 0.04) | 50.36% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Basel | Draw | Fiorentina |
| 2-1 @ 7.01% ( 0.16) 1-0 @ 6.77% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 4.2% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 2.9% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 2.42% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 1.74% ( 0.09)Other @ 3.47% Total : 28.5% | 1-1 @ 11.29% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.84% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 5.46% ( -0.21)3-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.12% | 1-2 @ 9.41% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 9.1% ( -0.34)0-2 @ 7.59% ( -0.27)1-3 @ 5.23% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 4.22% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 3.25% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 2.18% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.76% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 1.35% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.3% Total : 47.38% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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