SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 77.75%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 7.05%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.61%) and 3-0 (11.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.11%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 0-1 (3%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AC Milan | Draw | Sampdoria |
77.75% ( 0.16) | 15.2% ( -0.11) | 7.05% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 39.07% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.16% ( 0.28) | 43.84% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.77% ( 0.27) | 66.23% ( -0.27) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.64% ( 0.11) | 9.36% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 68.47% ( 0.25) | 31.53% ( -0.25) |
| Sampdoria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 43.1% ( 0.04) | 56.9% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 11.01% ( 0.02) | 88.98% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| AC Milan | Draw | Sampdoria |
| 2-0 @ 14.94% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 12.61% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 11.79% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 8.43% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 6.99% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 6.65% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 3.94% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 3.31% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.87% ( 0.02)6-0 @ 1.31% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.11% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.92% Total : 77.74% | 1-1 @ 7.11% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.33% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 2.38% Other @ 0.38% Total : 15.2% | 0-1 @ 3% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.05% Total : 7.05% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Napoli | 38 | 28 | 6 | 4 | 77 | 28 | 49 | 90 |
| 2 | Lazio | 38 | 22 | 8 | 8 | 60 | 30 | 30 | 74 |
| 3 | Inter Milan | 38 | 23 | 3 | 12 | 71 | 42 | 29 | 72 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 70 |
| 5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 38 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 66 | 48 | 18 | 64 |
| 6 | Roma | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 63 |
| 7 | Juventus | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 56 | 33 | 23 | 62 |
| 8 | Fiorentina | 38 | 15 | 11 | 12 | 53 | 43 | 10 | 56 |
| 9 | Bologna | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 53 | 49 | 4 | 54 |
| 10 | Torino | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 53 |
| 11 | Monza | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 |
| 12 | Udinese | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 46 |
| 13 | SassuoloSassuolo | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 45 |
| 14 | Empoli | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 43 |
| 15 | Salernitana | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 48 | 62 | -14 | 42 |
| 16 | Lecce | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 33 | 46 | -13 | 36 |
| R | SpeziaSpezia | 38 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 31 | 62 | -31 | 31 |
| 18 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 31 | 59 | -28 | 31 |
| 19 | Cremonese | 38 | 5 | 12 | 21 | 36 | 69 | -33 | 27 |
| R | Sampdoria | 38 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 24 | 71 | -47 | 19 |
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