Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugo win with a probability of 40.24%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 31.15% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.8%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 0-1 (10.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lugo in this match.
