SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 44.8%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 31.5% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.86%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest Sochi win was 2-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sochi | Draw | Spartak Moscow |
31.5% ( 0.04) | 23.7% ( 0.01) | 44.8% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 60.99% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.16% ( -0.05) | 40.84% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.77% ( -0.05) | 63.23% ( 0.05) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.84% ( 0) | 25.16% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.12% ( 0) | 59.88% ( -0.01) |
| Spartak Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.49% ( -0.04) | 18.51% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.26% ( -0.07) | 49.74% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sochi | Draw | Spartak Moscow |
| 2-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.43% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.44% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.44% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.9% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.04% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.19% ( 0)4-2 @ 1% Other @ 2.58% Total : 31.5% | 1-1 @ 10.84% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.31% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.63% ( -0)Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.7% | 1-2 @ 9.14% ( -0) 0-1 @ 7.86% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.63% ( -0)1-3 @ 5.14% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.73% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.55% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.17% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.5% ( -0)Other @ 3.53% Total : 44.8% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 57 | 11 | 46 | 54 |
| 2 | RostovRostov | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 44 |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 22 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 48 | 27 | 21 | 42 |
| 4 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 20 | 20 | 41 |
| 5 | Dynamo Moscow | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 39 | 29 | 10 | 36 |
| 6 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 29 | 4 | 36 |
| 7 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 47 | 36 | 11 | 35 |
| 8 | OrenburgOrenburg | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 32 |
| 9 | Sochi | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 31 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 25 |
| 11 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 25 |
| 12 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 24 |
| 13 | Nizhny Novgorod | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 24 | 44 | -20 | 19 |
| 14 | Fakel | 22 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 | Torpedo Moskva | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 35 | -20 | 13 |
| 16 | KhimkiKhimki | 22 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 50 | -31 | 13 |
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