SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 39.58%. A win for Orenburg had a probability of 35.82% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.04%) and 0-2 (6.06%). The likeliest Orenburg win was 2-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Orenburg | Draw | Sochi |
35.82% ( -0) | 24.6% | 39.58% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 59.11% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.13% ( 0.01) | 43.87% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.74% ( 0.01) | 66.26% ( -0.01) |
| Orenburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.91% | 24.09% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.62% ( 0) | 58.38% ( -0) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.86% ( 0) | 22.14% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.48% ( 0.01) | 55.52% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Orenburg | Draw | Sochi |
| 2-1 @ 8.15% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.59% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.4% ( -0)3-1 @ 3.87% 3-2 @ 2.91% 3-0 @ 2.56% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.38% 4-2 @ 1.04% 4-0 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.02% Total : 35.82% | 1-1 @ 11.44% 2-2 @ 6.14% 0-0 @ 5.33% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.47% Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.59% | 1-2 @ 8.63% ( 0) 0-1 @ 8.04% ( -0)0-2 @ 6.06% 1-3 @ 4.34% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.09% ( 0)0-3 @ 3.05% 1-4 @ 1.64% 2-4 @ 1.16% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.15% ( 0)Other @ 2.43% Total : 39.58% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 17 |
| 2 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 14 |
| 3 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Dynamo Moscow | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Spartak Moscow | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Nizhny Novgorod | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | RostovRostov | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 7 |
| 12 | Sochi | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Rubin Kazan | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 6 |
| 14 | OrenburgOrenburg | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Fakel | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 4 |
| 16 | Baltika | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
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