SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 56.93%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 20.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.78%), while for a Lokomotiv Moscow win it was 0-1 (5.88%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sochi | Draw | Lokomotiv Moscow |
56.93% ( 0.11) | 22.74% ( -0.05) | 20.33% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 53.08% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.82% ( 0.17) | 46.18% ( -0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.53% ( 0.16) | 68.47% ( -0.16) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.01% ( 0.1) | 15.99% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.69% ( 0.17) | 45.31% ( -0.17) |
| Lokomotiv Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.18% ( 0.04) | 36.82% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.39% ( 0.04) | 73.61% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sochi | Draw | Lokomotiv Moscow |
| 1-0 @ 10.79% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 9.89% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 9.88% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 6.04% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.02% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.77% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.77% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.38% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.31% Total : 56.93% | 1-1 @ 10.78% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.89% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 4.94% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.73% | 0-1 @ 5.88% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.79% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.65% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 1.71% Total : 20.33% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 26 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 68 | 15 | 53 | 64 |
| 2 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 51 |
| 3 | RostovRostov | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 50 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 57 | 35 | 22 | 49 |
| 5 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 41 | 34 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 55 | 42 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Dynamo Moscow | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 44 | 35 | 9 | 42 |
| 8 | OrenburgOrenburg | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 49 | 50 | -1 | 39 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 35 |
| 10 | Sochi | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 34 |
| 11 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 27 |
| 12 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 42 | -16 | 25 |
| 13 | Fakel | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 24 |
| 14 | Nizhny Novgorod | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 23 |
| 15 | KhimkiKhimki | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 24 | 58 | -34 | 17 |
| 16 | Torpedo Moskva | 26 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 20 | 49 | -29 | 13 |
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