SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nizhny Novgorod win with a probability of 44.56%. A win for Baltika had a probability of 28.41% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nizhny Novgorod win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Baltika win was 0-1 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nizhny Novgorod | Draw | Baltika |
44.56% ( 0.08) | 27.03% ( -0.02) | 28.41% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 48.46% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.61% ( 0.06) | 56.39% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.6% ( 0.05) | 77.4% ( -0.05) |
| Nizhny Novgorod Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.82% ( 0.07) | 25.18% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.1% ( 0.09) | 59.9% ( -0.09) |
| Baltika Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.76% ( -0.02) | 35.23% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.01% ( -0.02) | 71.99% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nizhny Novgorod | Draw | Baltika |
| 1-0 @ 12.23% 2-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.44% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.05% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.88% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.34% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.32% Total : 44.56% | 1-1 @ 12.76% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.87% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.59% ( 0)Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.03% | 0-1 @ 9.25% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.66% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.83% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.32% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.6% ( 0)Other @ 2.08% Total : 28.41% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 27 | 14 | 13 | 35 |
| 2 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 33 |
| 3 | Dynamo Moscow | 17 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 31 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 31 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 30 |
| 6 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 27 | 9 | 29 |
| 7 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 28 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 25 |
| 9 | Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 24 |
| 10 | Fakel | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 20 |
| 11 | RostovRostov | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 20 |
| 12 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 19 |
| 13 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 16 |
| 14 | OrenburgOrenburg | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 27 | -9 | 14 |
| 15 | Baltika | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Sochi | 17 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 10 |
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