SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 48%. A win for Baltika had a probability of 26.64% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.34%) and 0-2 (8.6%). The likeliest Baltika win was 1-0 (7.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Baltika | Draw | FC Krasnodar |
26.64% ( 0.05) | 25.36% ( 0) | 48% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 52.18% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.04% ( 0.01) | 50.95% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.17% ( 0) | 72.82% ( -0.01) |
| Baltika Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.26% ( 0.04) | 33.74% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.6% ( 0.04) | 70.4% ( -0.05) |
| FC Krasnodar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.76% ( -0.02) | 21.24% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.85% ( -0.03) | 54.15% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Baltika | Draw | FC Krasnodar |
| 1-0 @ 7.79% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 6.55% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.23% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.37% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.84% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.53% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.32% Total : 26.64% | 1-1 @ 12.06% 0-0 @ 7.17% ( -0)2-2 @ 5.08% ( 0)3-3 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.36% | 0-1 @ 11.1% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 9.34% ( -0)0-2 @ 8.6% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.83% ( -0)0-3 @ 4.44% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.62% 1-4 @ 1.87% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.72% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.02% ( -0)Other @ 2.46% Total : 47.99% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 33 |
| 2 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 32 |
| 3 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 36 | 24 | 12 | 29 |
| 4 | Dynamo Moscow | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 28 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 27 |
| 6 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 29 | 23 | 6 | 25 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 25 |
| 8 | Rubin Kazan | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 25 |
| 9 | Nizhny Novgorod | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 24 |
| 10 | RostovRostov | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 20 |
| 11 | Fakel | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 20 |
| 12 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | OrenburgOrenburg | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 14 |
| 14 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 13 |
| 15 | Baltika | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 13 |
| 16 | Sochi | 17 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 10 |
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