SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 45.04%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 30.75% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.6%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 1-2 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lokomotiv Moscow | Draw | FC Krasnodar |
45.04% ( -1.5) | 24.21% ( 0.09) | 30.75% ( 1.41) |
| Both teams to score 58.78% ( 0.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.43% ( 0.33) | 43.57% ( -0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.04% ( 0.32) | 65.96% ( -0.32) |
| Lokomotiv Moscow Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.48% ( -0.5) | 19.51% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.6% ( -0.82) | 51.4% ( 0.81) |
| FC Krasnodar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.04% ( 1.1) | 26.96% ( -1.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.7% ( 1.42) | 62.3% ( -1.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lokomotiv Moscow | Draw | FC Krasnodar |
| 2-1 @ 9.21% ( -0.14) 1-0 @ 8.6% ( -0.26)2-0 @ 7.02% ( -0.33)3-1 @ 5.02% ( -0.15)3-0 @ 3.83% ( -0.24)3-2 @ 3.29% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.05% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 1.56% ( -0.13)4-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.13% Total : 45.04% | 1-1 @ 11.26% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.03% ( 0.1)0-0 @ 5.26% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.44% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.2% | 1-2 @ 7.39% ( 0.23) 0-1 @ 6.9% ( 0.11)0-2 @ 4.52% ( 0.21)1-3 @ 3.23% ( 0.2)2-3 @ 2.64% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.15)1-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.1)Other @ 3.06% Total : 30.75% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 26 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 68 | 15 | 53 | 64 |
| 2 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 51 |
| 3 | RostovRostov | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 50 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 57 | 35 | 22 | 49 |
| 5 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 41 | 34 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 55 | 42 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Dynamo Moscow | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 44 | 35 | 9 | 42 |
| 8 | OrenburgOrenburg | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 49 | 50 | -1 | 39 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 35 |
| 10 | Sochi | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 34 |
| 11 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 27 |
| 12 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 26 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 42 | -16 | 25 |
| 13 | Fakel | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 24 |
| 14 | Nizhny Novgorod | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 27 | 49 | -22 | 23 |
| 15 | KhimkiKhimki | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 24 | 58 | -34 | 17 |
| 16 | Torpedo Moskva | 26 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 20 | 49 | -29 | 13 |
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