Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 46.08%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 29.39% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 (7.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for FC Krasnodar in this match.
