SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Khimki win with a probability of 38.99%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 35.79% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Khimki win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (6.25%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Khimki | Draw | Sochi |
38.99% ( 0.39) | 25.21% ( 0.06) | 35.79% ( -0.45) |
| Both teams to score 56.9% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.28% ( -0.31) | 46.72% ( 0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.01% ( -0.29) | 68.98% ( 0.29) |
| Khimki Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.3% ( 0.07) | 23.69% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.19% ( 0.09) | 57.81% ( -0.1) |
| Sochi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.57% ( -0.4) | 25.43% ( 0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.75% ( -0.55) | 60.24% ( 0.55) |
| Score Analysis |
| Khimki | Draw | Sochi |
| 1-0 @ 8.68% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 8.55% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 6.25% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 4.11% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.81% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.48% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0)Other @ 2.03% Total : 38.99% | 1-1 @ 11.87% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.02% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 5.86% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.2% | 0-1 @ 8.25% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.13% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 5.65% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 3.71% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.61% Total : 35.79% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Zenit St PetersburgZenit | 22 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 57 | 11 | 46 | 54 |
| 2 | Spartak Moscow | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 50 | 28 | 22 | 45 |
| 3 | RostovRostov | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 40 | 30 | 10 | 45 |
| 4 | CSKA MoscowCSKA | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 44 |
| 5 | Dynamo Moscow | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 42 | 30 | 12 | 39 |
| 6 | FC KrasnodarKrasnodar | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 49 | 36 | 13 | 38 |
| 7 | Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 29 | 4 | 36 |
| 8 | OrenburgOrenburg | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 33 |
| 9 | Sochi | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 31 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv MoscowLokomotiv | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 39 | -7 | 25 |
| 11 | Krylia SovetovKrylia Sovetov | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 25 |
| 12 | Ural YekaterinburgUral | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 25 |
| 13 | Nizhny Novgorod | 23 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 25 | 47 | -22 | 19 |
| 14 | Fakel | 22 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 17 |
| 15 | KhimkiKhimki | 23 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 50 | -31 | 14 |
| 16 | Torpedo Moskva | 23 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 37 | -21 | 13 |
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