SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 84.11%. A draw had a probability of 11.1% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 4.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.85%) and 1-0 (9.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.29%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (1.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Sporting Lisbon.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
84.11% ( 0.12) | 11.14% ( -0.06) | 4.75% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 39.85% ( -0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.72% ( -0.01) | 34.28% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.81% ( -0.01) | 56.18% ( 0) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.12% ( 0.02) | 5.88% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 77.46% ( 0.06) | 22.54% ( -0.07) |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 42.34% ( -0.23) | 57.66% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 10.59% ( -0.13) | 89.41% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
| 2-0 @ 13.61% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 12.85% ( 0.05)1-0 @ 9.61% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 9.11% ( 0.05)2-1 @ 7.5% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 7.08% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 5.16% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 5.02% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 2.84% ( -0)6-0 @ 2.44% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.38% ( -0.01)6-1 @ 1.34% ( 0)7-0 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.24% Total : 84.1% | 1-1 @ 5.29% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 3.39% 2-2 @ 2.06% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.4% Total : 11.14% | 0-1 @ 1.87% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.43% Total : 4.75% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 31 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 72 | 17 | 55 | 80 |
| 2 | Porto | 30 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 73 |
| 3 | Braga | 31 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 66 | 26 | 40 | 71 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 61 | 28 | 33 | 64 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 47 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 13 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 |
| 9 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 40 |
| 11 | Vizela | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 10 | 4 | 17 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 31 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 29 | 58 | -29 | 23 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 52 | -29 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 19 |
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