SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 63.72%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 15.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.85%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.74%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (4.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
15.75% ( 0.13) | 20.53% ( 0.21) | 63.72% ( -0.34) |
| Both teams to score 51.47% ( -0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.09% ( -0.66) | 43.91% ( 0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.7% ( -0.65) | 66.3% ( 0.65) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.23% ( -0.23) | 40.77% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 22.65% ( -0.21) | 77.35% ( 0.21) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.9% ( -0.3) | 13.1% ( 0.3) |
