SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 56.16%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 19.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.14%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.53%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (7.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Famalicao in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Famalicao.
| Result | ||
| Famalicao | Draw | Casa Pia |
56.16% ( 0.48) | 24.51% ( -0.17) | 19.34% ( -0.3) |
| Both teams to score 46.25% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.51% ( 0.26) | 54.48% ( -0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.15% ( 0.22) | 75.84% ( -0.21) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.69% ( 0.29) | 19.31% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.94% ( 0.47) | 51.06% ( -0.46) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.31% ( -0.19) | 42.68% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.98% ( -0.16) | 79.02% ( 0.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Famalicao | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 1-0 @ 13.55% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 11.14% ( 0.09)2-1 @ 9.49% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 6.11% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 5.2% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 2.51% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.22% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.14% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.88% Total : 56.15% | 1-1 @ 11.53% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 8.24% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 4.04% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.69% Total : 24.5% | 0-1 @ 7.02% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 4.91% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.88% Total : 19.34% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 30 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 71 | 17 | 54 | 77 |
| 2 | Braga | 30 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 66 | 25 | 41 | 71 |
| 3 | Porto | 29 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 62 | 19 | 43 | 70 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 29 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 59 | 27 | 32 | 61 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 44 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 42 |
| 8 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 40 |
| 9 | Vizela | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 33 | 32 | 1 | 39 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 34 | -7 | 39 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 38 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 37 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 26 | 45 | -19 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 52 | -29 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 30 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 48 | -29 | 16 |
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