SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 63.82%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 14.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.92%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.27%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (5.58%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Braga | Draw | Famalicao |
63.82% ( -0.07) | 21.93% ( 0.03) | 14.25% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 43.69% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.52% ( -0.02) | 52.48% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.85% ( -0.01) | 74.15% ( 0.02) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.16% ( -0.03) | 15.84% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.96% ( -0.06) | 45.03% ( 0.06) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.92% ( 0.06) | 48.08% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 16.71% ( 0.04) | 83.29% ( -0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Braga | Draw | Famalicao |
| 1-0 @ 14.03% 2-0 @ 12.92% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 9.47% ( 0)3-0 @ 7.94% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 5.82% ( -0)4-0 @ 3.66% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.68% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.13% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 0.99% ( -0)4-2 @ 0.98% Other @ 1.86% Total : 63.81% | 1-1 @ 10.27% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.62% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 3.47% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.57% Total : 21.92% | 0-1 @ 5.58% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 3.76% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.95% Total : 14.25% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 25 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 66 | 14 | 52 | 68 |
| 2 | Porto | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 57 |
| 3 | Braga | 24 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 55 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 40 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 38 |
| 8 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | Vizela | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 32 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
| 11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 30 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 30 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 39 | -18 | 22 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 47 | -30 | 16 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 16 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 15 |
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