SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 64.22%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 15.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.58%) and 2-1 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.84%), while for a Gil Vicente win it was 0-1 (4.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Braga | Draw | Gil Vicente |
64.22% ( 0.26) | 20.68% ( -0.03) | 15.1% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 49.45% ( -0.45) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.18% ( -0.32) | 45.82% ( 0.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.86% ( -0.3) | 68.14% ( 0.3) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.45% ( -0.02) | 13.55% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.37% ( -0.04) | 40.63% ( 0.04) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.19% ( -0.52) | 42.8% ( 0.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.88% ( -0.44) | 79.12% ( 0.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Braga | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 11.59% ( 0.15) 2-0 @ 11.58% ( 0.14)2-1 @ 9.83% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 7.72% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 6.55% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 3.86% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 3.27% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.79% Total : 64.21% | 1-1 @ 9.84% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.8% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.88% Total : 20.68% | 0-1 @ 4.92% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 2.09% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.56% Total : 15.1% |
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