SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Arsenal | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 4 | 8 | 10 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Nottingham Forest | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Everton | 5 | -2 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 81.35%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 5.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.09%) and 1-0 (10.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.04%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 0-1 (2.25%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
81.35% ( -0.04) | 12.7% ( 0.27) | 5.95% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 41.94% ( -2.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.65% ( -2.54) | 36.35% ( 2.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.52% ( -2.84) | 58.48% ( 2.84) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.16% ( -0.53) | 6.84% ( 0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 74.8% ( -1.45) | 25.2% ( 1.45) |
| Nottingham Forest Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 45.02% ( -2.58) | 54.98% ( 2.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.13% ( -1.61) | 87.87% ( 1.61) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
| 2-0 @ 13.53% ( 0.91) 3-0 @ 12.09% ( 0.47)1-0 @ 10.09% ( 0.95)4-0 @ 8.11% ( 0.08)2-1 @ 8.1% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 7.24% ( -0.28)4-1 @ 4.85% ( -0.34)5-0 @ 4.35% ( -0.09)5-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.27)3-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.26)6-0 @ 1.94% ( -0.1)4-2 @ 1.45% ( -0.23)6-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.16)Other @ 3.66% Total : 81.34% | 1-1 @ 6.04% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.46)2-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.22)Other @ 0.48% Total : 12.7% | 0-1 @ 2.25% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.1)Other @ 1.9% Total : 5.95% |
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