SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 42.97%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 33.89% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.78%) and 2-0 (5.85%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 1-2 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aston Villa in this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Chelsea |
42.97% ( 0.01) | 23.14% ( -0) | 33.89% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 64.07% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.79% ( 0.01) | 37.21% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.58% ( 0.01) | 59.42% ( -0.01) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.2% ( 0.01) | 17.8% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.47% ( 0.02) | 48.53% ( -0.01) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.94% ( -0) | 22.05% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.61% ( -0) | 55.39% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Chelsea |
| 2-1 @ 8.84% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.78% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.85% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.09% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.84% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.36% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.19% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.66% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.45% ( 0)Other @ 3.92% Total : 42.97% | 1-1 @ 10.24% 2-2 @ 6.68% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.93% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.94% ( 0)Other @ 0.35% Total : 23.14% | 1-2 @ 7.74% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.94% ( -0)0-2 @ 4.49% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.9% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.37% 0-3 @ 2.26% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.47% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.27% Other @ 3.45% Total : 33.89% |
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