SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 53.5%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 24.32% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.19%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (6.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chelsea | Draw | Aston Villa |
53.5% ( 0.13) | 22.18% ( -0.05) | 24.32% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 60.5% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.09% ( 0.15) | 38.91% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.77% ( 0.15) | 61.23% ( -0.15) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.39% ( 0.09) | 14.61% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.3% ( 0.18) | 42.7% ( -0.18) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.84% ( 0.02) | 29.16% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.91% ( 0.02) | 65.09% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chelsea | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 2-1 @ 9.71% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.19% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 7.88% ( -0)3-1 @ 6.23% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 5.05% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.84% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 3% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.43% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.15% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.24% Total : 53.51% | 1-1 @ 10.09% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.99% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.26% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.58% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.26% Total : 22.17% | 1-2 @ 6.22% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.25% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 3.23% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 2.56% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.46% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.27% Total : 24.32% |
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