SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 64.21%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Chelsea had a probability of 16.37%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.67%) and 1-0 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.95%), while for a Chelsea win it was 1-2 (4.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal | Draw | Chelsea |
64.21% ( 0.56) | 19.42% ( -0.07) | 16.37% ( -0.48) |
| Both teams to score 56.87% ( -0.84) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.48% ( -0.58) | 37.53% ( 0.58) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.25% ( -0.63) | 59.75% ( 0.63) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.95% ( -0.02) | 11.05% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 64.6% ( -0.05) | 35.4% ( 0.05) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.94% ( -0.93) | 36.06% ( 0.93) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.15% ( -0.96) | 72.85% ( 0.96) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal | Draw | Chelsea |
| 2-1 @ 9.86% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.67% ( 0.25)1-0 @ 8.78% ( 0.24)3-1 @ 7.24% 3-0 @ 7.1% ( 0.18)4-1 @ 3.99% ( -0)4-0 @ 3.91% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.09)4-2 @ 2.03% ( -0.05)5-1 @ 1.76% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.72% ( 0.04)Other @ 4.47% Total : 64.21% | 1-1 @ 8.95% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.03% ( -0.12)0-0 @ 3.99% ( 0.11)3-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.19% Total : 19.42% | 1-2 @ 4.57% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 4.07% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.07% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.41% Total : 16.37% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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