SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 81.41%. A draw had a probability of 12.2% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 6.41%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.1%) and 1-0 (8.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.73%), while for a Southampton win it was 0-1 (2.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal | Draw | Southampton |
81.41% ( 0.15) | 12.18% ( -0.08) | 6.41% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 47.32% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.75% ( 0.17) | 31.24% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.32% ( 0.2) | 52.67% ( -0.2) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.2% ( 0.06) | 5.8% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 77.7% ( 0.17) | 22.3% ( -0.17) |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.23% ( -0.06) | 49.76% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 15.5% ( -0.04) | 84.49% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal | Draw | Southampton |
| 2-0 @ 11.69% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 11.1% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 8.21% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 8.16% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 7.91% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 7.75% 4-1 @ 5.52% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 4.5% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 3.14% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.7% ( -0)6-0 @ 2.14% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.93% ( 0)6-1 @ 1.49% ( 0.02)5-2 @ 1.1% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.05% Total : 81.4% | 1-1 @ 5.73% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 2.88% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 2.85% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.71% Total : 12.18% | 0-1 @ 2.01% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 2% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.39% Total : 6.41% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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