SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Glenavon win with a probability of 55.37%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Carrick Rangers had a probability of 21.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Glenavon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.83%) and 2-0 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.64%), while for a Carrick Rangers win it was 1-2 (5.77%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Glenavon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Glenavon | Draw | Carrick Rangers |
55.37% ( -0.19) | 22.65% ( 0.12) | 21.97% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 55.79% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.26% ( -0.43) | 43.74% ( 0.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.87% ( -0.43) | 66.13% ( 0.43) |
| Glenavon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.33% ( -0.22) | 15.67% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.29% ( -0.4) | 44.71% ( 0.4) |
| Carrick Rangers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.16% ( -0.18) | 33.83% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.49% ( -0.19) | 70.5% ( 0.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Glenavon | Draw | Carrick Rangers |
| 2-1 @ 9.87% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.83% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 9.11% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 6.1% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 5.63% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.83% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 2.61% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 1.05% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 0.97% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.56% Total : 55.37% | 1-1 @ 10.64% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.35% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 5.3% ( 0.1)3-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.64% | 1-2 @ 5.77% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.75% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 3.11% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.21% Total : 21.97% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | LinfieldLinfield | 25 | 20 | 2 | 3 | 58 | 26 | 32 | 62 |
| 2 | LarneLarne | 25 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 50 | 16 | 34 | 58 |
| 3 | CliftonvilleCliftonville | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 55 | 15 | 40 | 54 |
| 4 | GlentoranGlentoran | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 47 | 24 | 23 | 41 |
| 5 | CrusadersCrusaders | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 28 | 15 | 41 |
| 6 | GlenavonGlenavon | 25 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 29 |
| 7 | ColeraineColeraine | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 29 |
| 8 | Loughgall | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 28 |
| 9 | Carrick RangersCarrick | 25 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 30 | 54 | -24 | 27 |
| 10 | Dungannon SwiftsDungannon | 25 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 24 |
| 11 | Ballymena UnitedBallymena | 25 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 45 | -28 | 18 |
| 12 | Newry City AFC | 25 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 62 | -44 | 12 |
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