SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crusaders win with a probability of 49.48%. A win for Glenavon had a probability of 26.27% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crusaders win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.56%) and 2-0 (8.31%). The likeliest Glenavon win was 0-1 (6.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crusaders would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Crusaders | Draw | Glenavon |
49.48% ( -0.2) | 24.24% ( -0.02) | 26.27% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 55.45% ( 0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.49% ( 0.27) | 46.51% ( -0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.21% ( 0.25) | 68.78% ( -0.25) |
| Crusaders Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.15% ( 0.02) | 18.85% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.69% ( 0.04) | 50.3% ( -0.04) |
| Glenavon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.33% ( 0.31) | 31.67% ( -0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.91% ( 0.36) | 68.08% ( -0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Crusaders | Draw | Glenavon |
| 1-0 @ 9.96% ( -0.1) 2-1 @ 9.56% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 8.31% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 5.32% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.62% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.22% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.93% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.28% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.24% Total : 49.48% | 1-1 @ 11.45% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.97% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 5.49% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.24% | 0-1 @ 6.86% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.59% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 3.95% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.52% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.11% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.51% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.74% Total : 26.27% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | LinfieldLinfield | 21 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 52 | 24 | 28 | 52 |
| 2 | LarneLarne | 22 | 15 | 6 | 1 | 45 | 14 | 31 | 51 |
| 3 | CliftonvilleCliftonville | 21 | 14 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 13 | 36 | 45 |
| 4 | GlentoranGlentoran | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 21 | 18 | 35 |
| 5 | CrusadersCrusaders | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 22 | 15 | 35 |
| 6 | ColeraineColeraine | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 30 | 37 | -7 | 29 |
| 7 | Carrick RangersCarrick | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 27 |
| 8 | GlenavonGlenavon | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 23 |
| 9 | Loughgall | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 33 | 45 | -12 | 22 |
| 10 | Dungannon SwiftsDungannon | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 18 |
| 11 | Ballymena UnitedBallymena | 21 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 38 | -27 | 12 |
| 12 | Newry City AFC | 22 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 17 | 51 | -34 | 12 |
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