SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crusaders win with a probability of 49.41%. A win for Cliftonville had a probability of 26.16% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crusaders win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Cliftonville win was 0-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Crusaders | Draw | Cliftonville |
49.41% ( 0.01) | 24.44% ( -0.59) | 26.16% ( 0.59) |
| Both teams to score 54.72% ( 2.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.57% ( 2.94) | 47.43% ( -2.94) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.36% ( 2.67) | 69.65% ( -2.66) |
| Crusaders Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.76% ( 1.17) | 19.24% ( -1.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.05% ( 1.89) | 50.95% ( -1.88) |
| Cliftonville Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.75% ( 2.06) | 32.25% ( -2.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.26% ( 2.26) | 68.75% ( -2.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Crusaders | Draw | Cliftonville |
| 1-0 @ 10.22% ( -0.9) 2-1 @ 9.54% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 8.43% ( -0.41)3-1 @ 5.24% ( 0.23)3-0 @ 4.63% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.28)4-1 @ 2.16% ( 0.17)4-0 @ 1.91% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.16)Other @ 3.09% Total : 49.4% | 1-1 @ 11.57% ( -0.33) 0-0 @ 6.21% ( -0.79)2-2 @ 5.4% ( 0.34)3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.16)Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.43% | 0-1 @ 7.02% ( -0.47) 1-2 @ 6.55% ( 0.18)0-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.47% ( 0.2)2-3 @ 2.04% ( 0.23)0-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.61% Total : 26.16% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | LinfieldLinfield | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 34 |
| 2 | CrusadersCrusaders | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 32 | 11 | 21 | 27 |
| 3 | CliftonvilleCliftonville | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 29 | 6 | 23 | 26 |
| 4 | LarneLarne | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 27 | 9 | 18 | 26 |
| 5 | GlentoranGlentoran | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
| 6 | ColeraineColeraine | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 20 |
| 7 | Loughgall | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 18 |
| 8 | Carrick RangersCarrick | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 16 | 34 | -18 | 13 |
| 9 | Newry City AFC | 13 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 35 | -21 | 10 |
| 10 | Ballymena UnitedBallymena | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 9 |
| 11 | Dungannon SwiftsDungannon | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 28 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | GlenavonGlenavon | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 31 | -20 | 7 |
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