SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crusaders win with a probability of 53.9%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Cliftonville had a probability of 22.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crusaders win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.76%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.42%), while for a Cliftonville win it was 0-1 (6.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Crusaders | Draw | Cliftonville |
53.9% ( -0.53) | 24.03% ( 0.15) | 22.06% ( 0.38) |
| Both teams to score 51.5% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.5% ( -0.2) | 49.49% ( 0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.47% ( -0.18) | 71.53% ( 0.18) |
| Crusaders Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.72% ( -0.28) | 18.28% ( 0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.66% ( -0.47) | 49.33% ( 0.47) |
| Cliftonville Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.02% ( 0.26) | 36.97% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.24% ( 0.26) | 73.76% ( -0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Crusaders | Draw | Cliftonville |
| 1-0 @ 11.48% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.76% ( -0.09)2-1 @ 9.71% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 5.53% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 5.5% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.35% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 2.34% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.33% Total : 53.9% | 1-1 @ 11.42% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 6.76% ( 0.06)2-2 @ 4.83% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 0.91% ( 0)Other @ 0.1% Total : 24.02% | 0-1 @ 6.72% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 5.69% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 3.35% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.72% Total : 22.07% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | LarneLarne | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 57 | 18 | 39 | 73 |
| 2 | LinfieldLinfield | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 70 | 25 | 45 | 68 |
| 3 | CliftonvilleCliftonville | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 61 | 41 | 20 | 66 |
| 4 | GlentoranGlentoran | 33 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 68 | 24 | 44 | 64 |
| 5 | CrusadersCrusaders | 33 | 18 | 8 | 7 | 65 | 37 | 28 | 62 |
| 6 | ColeraineColeraine | 33 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 53 | 30 | 23 | 58 |
| 7 | GlenavonGlenavon | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 41 |
| 8 | Carrick RangersCarrick | 33 | 11 | 4 | 18 | 41 | 65 | -24 | 37 |
| 9 | Ballymena UnitedBallymena | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 49 | -19 | 32 |
| 10 | Newry City AFC | 33 | 7 | 2 | 24 | 31 | 66 | -35 | 23 |
| 11 | Dungannon SwiftsDungannon | 33 | 7 | 2 | 24 | 22 | 76 | -54 | 23 |
| R | PortadownPortadown | 33 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 23 | 83 | -60 | 16 |
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