SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Welling United win with a probability of 45.01%. A win for Weymouth had a probability of 31.28% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Welling United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.91%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Weymouth win was 1-2 (7.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Welling United | Draw | Weymouth |
45.01% ( -0.66) | 23.7% ( -0.14) | 31.28% ( 0.8) |
| Both teams to score 60.86% ( 0.94) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.04% ( 1.05) | 40.95% ( -1.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.65% ( 1.06) | 63.34% ( -1.07) |
| Welling United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.52% ( 0.15) | 18.47% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.32% ( 0.25) | 49.67% ( -0.25) |
| Weymouth Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.65% ( 1.02) | 25.34% ( -1.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.86% ( 1.38) | 60.13% ( -1.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Welling United | Draw | Weymouth |
| 2-1 @ 9.17% ( -0.08) 1-0 @ 7.91% ( -0.35)2-0 @ 6.68% ( -0.26)3-1 @ 5.16% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.76% ( -0.13)3-2 @ 3.54% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 2.18% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.59% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.5% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.54% Total : 45.01% | 1-1 @ 10.85% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 6.29% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 4.68% ( -0.23)3-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.7% | 1-2 @ 7.45% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 6.43% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 4.41% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 3.41% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 2.88% ( 0.14)0-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.08)2-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.53% Total : 31.28% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ebbsfleet | 39 | 27 | 7 | 5 | 93 | 41 | 52 | 88 |
| 2 | DartfordDartford | 37 | 21 | 7 | 9 | 69 | 40 | 29 | 70 |
| 3 | Oxford CityOxford City | 39 | 18 | 13 | 8 | 67 | 46 | 21 | 67 |
| 4 | Chelmsford CityChelmsford City | 39 | 19 | 8 | 12 | 53 | 39 | 14 | 65 |
| 5 | Braintree TownBraintree | 39 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 56 | 45 | 11 | 64 |
| 6 | Havant & WaterloovilleHavant & W'ville | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 69 | 54 | 15 | 62 |
| 7 | Worthing | 39 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 72 | 65 | 7 | 60 |
| 8 | Tonbridge AngelsTonbridge Angels | 39 | 17 | 8 | 14 | 58 | 57 | 1 | 59 |
| 9 | St Albans CitySt Albans City | 37 | 17 | 7 | 13 | 59 | 44 | 15 | 58 |
| 10 | Bath City | 39 | 16 | 10 | 13 | 55 | 49 | 6 | 58 |
| 11 | Eastbourne BoroughEastbourne | 39 | 18 | 4 | 17 | 65 | 60 | 5 | 58 |
| 12 | Farnborough Town | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 54 |
| 13 | Hemel Hempstead TownHemel Hempstead | 39 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 53 |
| 14 | Hampton & RichmondHampton | 38 | 12 | 8 | 18 | 51 | 61 | -10 | 44 |
| 15 | Dover AthleticDover Athletic | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 44 |
| 16 | Slough TownSlough | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 46 | 66 | -20 | 43 |
| 17 | Chippenham TownChippenham | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 43 |
| 18 | Welling UnitedWelling United | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 42 |
| 19 | Dulwich HamletDulwich Hamlet | 38 | 11 | 5 | 22 | 54 | 80 | -26 | 38 |
| 20 | Taunton TownTaunton Town | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 37 |
| 21 | Cheshunt | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 43 | 63 | -20 | 36 |
| 22 | Weymouth | 37 | 10 | 5 | 22 | 46 | 68 | -22 | 35 |
| 23 | Hungerford TownHungerford | 37 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 35 |
| 24 | Concord Rangers | 33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 32 | 58 | -26 | 31 |
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