SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southport win with a probability of 42.35%. A win for Spennymoor Town had a probability of 32.17% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southport win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Spennymoor Town win was 0-1 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Southport | Draw | Spennymoor Town |
42.35% ( -0.64) | 25.48% ( 0.26) | 32.17% ( 0.37) |
| Both teams to score 55.09% ( -0.74) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.32% ( -1.03) | 48.67% ( 1.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.21% ( -0.94) | 70.79% ( 0.94) |
| Southport Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.12% ( -0.75) | 22.87% ( 0.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.38% ( -1.11) | 56.61% ( 1.11) |
| Spennymoor Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.43% ( -0.27) | 28.57% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.64% ( -0.33) | 64.36% ( 0.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Southport | Draw | Spennymoor Town |
| 1-0 @ 9.64% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 8.91% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 7.11% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.38% ( -0.14)3-0 @ 3.5% ( -0.09)3-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.11)4-1 @ 1.62% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 1.29% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.15% Total : 42.35% | 1-1 @ 12.07% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 6.53% ( 0.27)2-2 @ 5.58% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.47% | 0-1 @ 8.19% ( 0.28) 1-2 @ 7.57% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 5.13% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 3.16% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.14% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.67% Total : 32.17% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Fylde | 46 | 29 | 8 | 9 | 80 | 44 | 36 | 95 |
| 2 | King's Lynn TownKing's Lynn | 46 | 27 | 12 | 7 | 84 | 43 | 41 | 93 |
| 3 | Chester FCChester | 46 | 22 | 18 | 6 | 72 | 41 | 31 | 84 |
| 4 | Brackley Town | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 69 |
| 5 | Alfreton TownAlfreton | 46 | 17 | 18 | 11 | 54 | 44 | 10 | 69 |
| 6 | Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 69 |
| 7 | Gloucester CityGloucester City | 46 | 19 | 11 | 16 | 75 | 68 | 7 | 68 |
| 8 | Scarborough AthleticScarborough Ath | 46 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 74 | 69 | 5 | 68 |
| 9 | Spennymoor TownSpennymoor | 46 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 68 | 67 | 1 | 68 |
| 10 | Darlington | 46 | 18 | 13 | 15 | 72 | 64 | 8 | 67 |
| 11 | Buxton | 46 | 18 | 13 | 15 | 55 | 54 | 1 | 67 |
| 12 | Chorley | 46 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 62 | 50 | 12 | 66 |
| 13 | Curzon AshtonCurzon Ashton | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 58 | 55 | 3 | 65 |
| 14 | Peterborough SportsP'boro Sports | 46 | 15 | 12 | 19 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 57 |
| 15 | Boston UnitedBoston | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 68 | 66 | 2 | 56 |
| 16 | Hereford UnitedHereford | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 47 | 56 | -9 | 55 |
| 17 | Banbury UnitedBanbury | 46 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 54 |
| 18 | SouthportSouthport | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 50 | 62 | -12 | 50 |
| 19 | Blyth Spartans | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 49 | 62 | -13 | 50 |
| 20 | Farsley CelticFarsley Celtic | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 51 | 75 | -24 | 50 |
| R | Kettering TownKettering | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 41 | 63 | -22 | 49 |
| R | Leamington FCLeamington | 46 | 10 | 18 | 18 | 41 | 60 | -19 | 48 |
| R | Bradford Park AvenueBradford Park Av | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 43 | 65 | -22 | 46 |
| R | AFC Telford UnitedTelford | 46 | 6 | 14 | 26 | 35 | 76 | -41 | 32 |
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