SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Buxton win with a probability of 51.55%. A win for Spennymoor Town had a probability of 24.61% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Buxton win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 2-0 (8.7%). The likeliest Spennymoor Town win was 0-1 (6.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Buxton would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Buxton | Draw | Spennymoor Town |
51.55% ( 0.06) | 23.84% ( -0.02) | 24.61% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 55.1% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.8% ( 0.05) | 46.2% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.5% ( 0.05) | 68.49% ( -0.05) |
| Buxton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.07% ( 0.04) | 17.93% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.25% ( 0.07) | 48.75% ( -0.07) |
| Spennymoor Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.13% ( -0.01) | 32.86% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.56% ( -0.01) | 69.43% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Buxton | Draw | Spennymoor Town |
| 1-0 @ 10.12% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.68% ( 0)2-0 @ 8.7% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.55% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.99% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.09% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.38% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.14% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.33% ( 0)Other @ 3.56% Total : 51.54% | 1-1 @ 11.27% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.89% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.39% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.15% ( 0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.84% | 0-1 @ 6.56% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.27% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.33% ( -0)2-3 @ 2% 0-3 @ 1.35% ( -0)Other @ 2.45% Total : 24.61% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Fylde | 46 | 29 | 8 | 9 | 80 | 44 | 36 | 95 |
| 2 | King's Lynn TownKing's Lynn | 46 | 27 | 12 | 7 | 84 | 43 | 41 | 93 |
| 3 | Chester FCChester | 46 | 22 | 18 | 6 | 72 | 41 | 31 | 84 |
| 4 | Brackley Town | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 69 |
| 5 | Alfreton TownAlfreton | 46 | 17 | 18 | 11 | 54 | 44 | 10 | 69 |
| 6 | Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 69 |
| 7 | Gloucester CityGloucester City | 46 | 19 | 11 | 16 | 75 | 68 | 7 | 68 |
| 8 | Scarborough AthleticScarborough Ath | 46 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 74 | 69 | 5 | 68 |
| 9 | Spennymoor TownSpennymoor | 46 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 68 | 67 | 1 | 68 |
| 10 | Darlington | 46 | 18 | 13 | 15 | 72 | 64 | 8 | 67 |
| 11 | Buxton | 46 | 18 | 13 | 15 | 55 | 54 | 1 | 67 |
| 12 | Chorley | 46 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 62 | 50 | 12 | 66 |
| 13 | Curzon AshtonCurzon Ashton | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 58 | 55 | 3 | 65 |
| 14 | Peterborough SportsP'boro Sports | 46 | 15 | 12 | 19 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 57 |
| 15 | Boston UnitedBoston | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 68 | 66 | 2 | 56 |
| 16 | Hereford UnitedHereford | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 47 | 56 | -9 | 55 |
| 17 | Banbury UnitedBanbury | 46 | 13 | 15 | 18 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 54 |
| 18 | SouthportSouthport | 46 | 13 | 11 | 22 | 50 | 62 | -12 | 50 |
| 19 | Blyth Spartans | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 49 | 62 | -13 | 50 |
| 20 | Farsley CelticFarsley Celtic | 46 | 12 | 14 | 20 | 51 | 75 | -24 | 50 |
| R | Kettering TownKettering | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 41 | 63 | -22 | 49 |
| R | Leamington FCLeamington | 46 | 10 | 18 | 18 | 41 | 60 | -19 | 48 |
| R | Bradford Park AvenueBradford Park Av | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 43 | 65 | -22 | 46 |
| R | AFC Telford UnitedTelford | 46 | 6 | 14 | 26 | 35 | 76 | -41 | 32 |
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