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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 48.94%. A win for DC United had a probability of 25.88% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.79%). The likeliest DC United win was 0-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toronto | Draw | DC United |
48.94% ( 0.06) | 25.18% ( -0.23) | 25.88% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 52.1% ( 0.85) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.25% ( 1.04) | 50.75% ( -1.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.35% ( 0.91) | 72.64% ( -0.91) |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.24% ( 0.45) | 20.75% ( -0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 46.61% ( 0.7) | 53.39% ( -0.7) |
| DC United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.74% ( 0.7) | 34.25% ( -0.7) |
