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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | 8 | 50 |
| 4 | New York City FC | 31 | 13 | 46 |
| 5 | Orlando City | 30 | -10 | 42 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | CF Montreal | 31 | 11 | 56 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | 8 | 50 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 30 | 5 | 41 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 53.35%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 22.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.75%) and 2-0 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.24%), while for a New York Red Bulls win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York City FC | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
53.35% ( -3.78) | 23.71% ( 1.08) | 22.94% ( 2.7) |
| Both teams to score 53.61% ( 0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.75% ( -1.44) | 47.25% ( 1.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.52% ( -1.35) | 69.48% ( 1.35) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.35% ( -1.85) | 17.65% ( 1.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 51.74% ( -3.31) | 48.26% ( 3.32) |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.1% ( 1.8) | 34.9% ( -1.8) |
