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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 6 | 40 |
| 5 | New England Revolution | 28 | -3 | 35 |
| 6 | Toronto | 29 | -5 | 34 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 30 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | New York City FC | 28 | 17 | 45 |
| 5 | Orlando City | 28 | -5 | 42 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New England Revolution win with a probability of 48.69%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 27.11% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a New England Revolution win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (6.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New England Revolution would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New England Revolution | Draw | New York City FC |
48.69% ( 0.27) | 24.19% ( 0) | 27.11% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 56.32% ( -0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.32% ( -0.2) | 45.68% ( 0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.99% ( -0.19) | 68% ( 0.19) |
| New England Revolution Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.15% ( 0.03) | 18.84% ( -0.03) |
